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3/8/06 Observation

Today was just plain screwed up.

My forecast this morning contained three primary areas of interest thus three target cities: Kansas City, MO, Stillwater, OK and Hugo, OK.
Kansas City got nothing at all. The demise of this area as a target was apparent by late morning so that didn't bother me too much.
Stillwater verified due to a cell that popped up just south of there and petered out by the time it made it to the Keystone Lake area.
Hugo was a target for after 11:00PM and it currently has a nasty sup to its north by about 20 miles. We’ll call that verified.

SPC has really bugged me today. A 10% hatched area and early MD for NE TX /SE OK started out the day followed by an upgrade to moderate at 1630 in the same area. Following that, a torn watch was issued for the area including KS City, all the way down to the OK/KS border.
The 2000 update was issued and more of eastern OK was in the moderate area and the 10% hatched area was also expanded. A tornado watch was issued around 5:00 for my area (Tulsa) and points south and west.

I was out chasing at this point and it appeared storms were gonna be unable to work with the ingredients available so I aborted my chase for dinner.

Justin Teague called me and advised at 0100, SPC had expanded the moderate risk area to I-35, moved the 10% hatched area into SC & eastern OK and made mention of tornadoes in their outlook that read something like this: STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 1 TO 3 KM WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES IN CELLULAR STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO EXTREME NWRN AR AND SWRN MO.
I was away from my computer and unable to put together one of my famous crappy forecasts so I called around to get everyone's take on the issue. The general consensus, even straight from the NWSTUL mets mouths was that there was a distinct possibility of some serious activity after midnight and possibly extending until 4:00AM.
By the time I got near a computer to take a look, SPC canceled the tornado watch early and replaced it with a severe t-storm watch effective until 2:00AM. Hummm

Now that I have given you this timeline that you really never cared about in the first place, I have to ask - is this current severe t-storm watch just a placeholder for a forthcoming tornado watch for storms that will occur overnight or is the 10% hatch and strong wording null & void?

3/8/06 Forecast