My forecast this morning contained three primary areas of interest thus three target cities:
Hugo was a target for after 11:00PM and it currently has a nasty sup to its north by about 20 miles. We’ll call that verified.
SPC has really bugged me today. A 10% hatched area and early MD for NE TX /
The 2000 update was issued and more of eastern OK was in the moderate area and the 10% hatched area was also expanded. A tornado watch was issued around 5:00 for my area (
I was out chasing at this point and it appeared storms were gonna be unable to work with the ingredients available so I aborted my chase for dinner.
Justin Teague called me and advised at 0100, SPC had expanded the moderate risk area to I-35, moved the 10% hatched area into SC & eastern OK and made mention of tornadoes in their outlook that read something like this: STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 1 TO 3 KM WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES IN CELLULAR STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO EXTREME NWRN AR AND SWRN MO.
I was away from my computer and unable to put together one of my famous crappy forecasts so I called around to get everyone's take on the issue. The general consensus, even straight from the NWSTUL mets mouths was that there was a distinct possibility of some serious activity after midnight and possibly extending until 4:00AM.
By the time I got near a computer to take a look, SPC canceled the tornado watch early and replaced it with a severe t-storm watch effective until 2:00AM. Hummm
Now that I have given you this timeline that you really never cared about in the first place, I have to ask - is this current severe t-storm watch just a placeholder for a forthcoming tornado watch for storms that will occur overnight or is the 10% hatch and strong wording null & void?