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Another Round of Poor Modeling

Nobody's forecast verified today except perhaps Steve Miller from Texas. He went for an area in ARK and Louisiana for the best chance of severe weather with possibility of a spin-up or two.

Today was a good example of a wishcast for many armchair forecasters. It is interesting to see how wishcasting really works. People from NE OK were targeting B-ville based on NAM runs 36 hours ago. People from Dallas were targeting, well, Dallas! -based on the NAM. People south of Dallas were preying on the latest RUC data and Austin was the target for them. I think I can safely speak for everyone when I say - I can't wait for the real season to start!

My Bartlesville, OK assumption was the only thing that came to fruition for me today; hardly a verification of my forecast though as no severe thunderstorm warnings were issued.
Looking back on the models I pulled this morning as well as surface plots galore, I still feel Norman, OK down to Sherman, TX would have been a good bet for activity directly related to the vortmax with what the models were giving me. Amos has a good explanation of what's up with the NAM at his blog.

Since the image above is current and I am sitting at home writing this, you guessed it, I didn't even bother going out for lightning. Lazy? Maybe...

Another Mark Farnik Opinion - And Some Facts Too

Chaos Amplified