The maps below are of 5 & 6pm tomorrow respectively. Prior to the 00z run of the NAM, I really didn’t give much merit to the idea we could see action here in Oklahoma City other than maybe waving at some nice thunderheads to our east. This has changed and in a most ominous fashion.
As of the latest information, the 4km NAM doesn’t have the cap breaking much further south of OKC. Simulated radar paints the picture of a supercell that will track through the metro between 5 and 6:30p. This image above is 5pm Sunday, the image below is 6pm.
All of this said, the best dynamics still remain to the East of OKC and clearly the area between Okmulgee and Bartlesville look to have the potential to be hotspots for damaging hail and wind.
The main thing that keeps me from getting excited about the dryline play is the fact that models handle the arrival of cold air poorly and it’ll have a good chance of being ahead of where the models think it should, even 24 hours out.
Time will tell.