I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast for 11/5/05 part VI

12z is out and I still have confidence in the Joplin to Carthage area for development on the extreme SW side of this system.
With what the NAM did to placement of the low though, the ONLY thing I can guarantee is that somewhere between Joplin, MO and Cleveland, OH there WILL be a stoke of lightning and a clap of thunder. I give this 100% probability! Question is, if the lightning stikes in the woods and no one is around to hear it, does it actually make a sound? Well, with the way the wind is around Tulsa and up through this area today, it most certainly could make a fire!
I'm sticking with the Joplin target because several "supporting" models are still indicating a sup in that area. LI's and CAPE are minimal. Updraft speeds are still great and upper level support is fine.
I'm glad I have not gotten myself all fired up about this event although I wish it would do something since I'm available to chase it!
More later - maybe.

Forecast for 11/5/05 part VII