I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast for 11/27/05 part III

You know when you burp and throw up a little in your mouth but it doesn't get any further than that? Well, that’s what the NAM did on the 12z run this morning. Usually you hear me say "it barfed all over itself" - this is not a complete barf but it does concern me a little as it shifted the entire system 60-90 miles east of the 00z and 06z runs.
Prior to the NAM 00z run yesterday and GFS runs past 84 hours, the system was progged to be well southeast of my location in Tulsa. As of the 12z NAM, the center of attention is almost due east of me at 00z Mon. (Sun. evening) near the ARK/TENN border.
Since I think this is just a gross burp, I am not changing my thoughts on targets. CAPE looks to be in good shape in the ARK target area at 1000 or more. It dropped CAPE in my secondary target area in KS. I'm looking at 600-700. Lapse rates are in good shape across the KS target area. 850-500 spd shear is around 50+ KTS well in to SE KS by 21z Sun and Total Totals are 56 right over my target at the same time. 500 and 1000mb absolute vort is very impressive from AMA all the way up to my target. Max updraft speed is pitiful though at 25.

Looks like Nebraska will get hit hard with one heck of an overnight snow storm sun/mon.
Get the sleds...

Forecast for 11/27/05 part II