I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast for 11/27/05 part I

This is amazing - 2005 just won't quit. With a few months before the "official" storm season, I'm looking at a possible late fall chase this weekend.

In comparing some NAM data from 18z and 00z, I am encouraged. Why was I discouraged in the first place? The GFS has been placing the overall system further south and east than I would be willing to travel for a late chase. ARK/LA/TX was looking like a good hunch for the past couple of days.
With the 18z rendering this afternoon, the low was progged to still be too far south but it was indicating a much deeper mode. At 00z rendering tonight, the NAM shifted the low north and it is forecast to have a center pressure of around 990. Pretty impressive. Upper level support for the system overall is equally impressive although I won't get in to details until the event nears.

The hi-res NAM indicated two areas of interest. The obvious area is still too far south and east for me to chase. Right now, I like Pine Bluff, ARK - still though, I'm looking 72 hours out and we all know targets can change with time.
The secondary area is a pocket of -4 LI with CAPE of around 800 in SC/SE KS. Yates Center looks like a possible target. 00z NAM and an earlier European started placing precip in this area. Upper level support is tremendous. The relation to the low could be interesting too as it will be a similar set-up to two early 2005 events which produced.
Since the breaking out of precip has just now been indicated by the models, I'm not going to get excited but I WILL keep and eye one it and post as I see something worth posting about.

Chase Blogs and Work