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Forecast for 11/14/05 part II

I lied - I will be posting more than one forecast for 11/14 today!
Looking over some RUC data, I see a pretty persistent indication that there will be a supercell in my backyard tonight. I mean literally too.
My concern is the helicity ahead of a warm front pushing northward out of SE OK as I write. It is quite impressive. Updraft speeds are optimal and, given the type of system the upper levels are interacting with, anything that goes up and remains discrete WILL rotate at all levels. LI's will increase to -6 by midnight...
I wouldn't put a tornado past this little set-up and with it being a night-time event, the danger level skyrockets.
As of right now off of mesoscale hourly and RUC guidance, I will put a supercell with moderate rotation at all levels at between Bristow and Okmulgee by midnight and, if said sup is in Bristow, given the track of the storm, it should track through or near Tulsa.
Heads up everyone.

A Look at First Tweets in Weather

Forecast for 11/14/05