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Forecast for 11/12/05 part VII

With the 12z run, it looks like Missouri is indeed in the most favorable area for tornadoes this evening (as in after dark). I am personally watching an area just west of BVO and, if things continue to look as they are right now, Bartlesville will be my target for today.
Judging by the atmospheric set-up for 00z in eastern OK, it appears there could be some very wild weather east and SE of Tulsa if the cap breaks. More on that when I switch to the RUC.
Also, if you study LI's and CAPE, as well as upper level support over my target, you will note that at 18z, this is the best looking area for svr in the U.S.
I think the NAM must be underestimating the strength of the low and it's influence on the northward progress of instability.
More in a little while.

Forecast for 11/12/05 part VI