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Forecast for 11/5/05 part I

Yes! Forecasting severe weather during November! Can't beat that.
Saturday is looking like a potential chase day - pretty close to home too.
I'm not gonna write too much this far out (still at 84 hours), but Pittsburgh, KS area looks to be where initiation of the SW portion of the activity for Sat. will be.
I think concentration by others will be on the area around Springfield as that system has dropped SW for the past couple of days on the GFS. As usual, I am not going with the popular target as I expect better moisture to be available and definitely better upper level support closer to the Pittsburgh/Carthage area.
I will adjust my forecast as we get closer to the event since this system as a whole is being moved a lot by models. Now that the NAM has a hold of it, we'll see what it thinks.
More later.

Great Lakes 77.3% Ice; Only Increasing in Coverage

Pictures, and more pictures...