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Forecast for 10/31/05 part I

Looking at a possibility for svr on Halloween. CAPE and LI's are in check close to the ARK/LA/TX area. Surface-based instability is present all across eastern TX and its association with a cold front and steep lapse rates at the mid levels ahead of said front, a squall will be the mode but it could be a semi-severe one with high winds being the primary threat. This is not the year to dress your kids up as Ben Franklin and his kite if you are in eastern TX...

Further north, and something forecasters are not noting as of yet, is the chance of a discrete supercell in eastern Oklahoma. Winds are favorable at the mid and upper levels (more so than down south in the TX. CAPE and LI's are not yet registering on the NAM at more than 500 and -3 respectively. The European models which have kicked ass all year are showing 1000 and -4 respectively. That is a little more encouraging. Picking a target this far out is dangerous when nailing a discrete sup at this time of year but I'll give it a shot since there is nothing else going on. My interest is in the Muskogee, OK area with GFS, NAM and European all agreeing within 80 miles of this location with Muskogee being the average of all differences. This target will likely change but hey, ya never know.
As for the severity of the "event", it looks like a great lightning show will be on tap. Winds, of course, and hail will be present but coverage will be very small.
All of this forecast depends on how long the ongoing precip sticks around from the late Sunday and early Monday activity. If it is raining in eastern OK at noon on Monday, there will be nothing in the area Mon night. Otherwise, check the forecast!

On a different note, I am working on posting additional pictures from our vacation a couple of weeks ago. You can find those by clicking "Steve's Pics" on the right side of this page. I should have everything updated by this evening.

Forecast for 10/31/05 part II

Wilma 10/24/05