Hi.

I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast for 1019/05 part III

Above is a 21z map showing LI with a CAPE overlay in red. You will note the 2000 CAPE and with a station breakdown, CAPE is projected to hit 2232 between Buffalo and Enid tomorrow.
Placement at 21z is about right to convince me to keep my western target.
I chose to share a 21z map because this appears to be an early trigger day. I have noted the system slowed for a few hours today but it appears to be making up for lost time as I write so arrival is still expected to be around 4:00PM with initiation in extreme W central and NW OK.
LI's are lower than the 18z sounding but I am still not concerned. There is plenty of instability and, as we have seen in the past with the NAM, it gets a little timid on some surface-based forecast outputs at 24 hours out. Very recently I saw a forecast for -6 LI, result in a verified -10 LI in Oklahoma. I busted anyway but that is not the point to my little story...

This map is a little more concerning to me because of placement of the best Helicititty in relation to the CAPE and LI map I posted above. Yes, I realize this map is a forecast for 00z and not 21z as posted...
I have generally seen the NAM Helicity and Sweat agree with earlier forecast times of the European models and it (the NAM) has always gotten ahead of itself during early and late season events. Tomorrow is no different at all so what you see here is what should be happening by 21z tomorrow.
As for Total Totals, this is a new variable to me. I found it as a selection in my nifty little bag of model tricks and played with it one day. Justin and I read up on it and now we use it a little.
Don't use my little sweat/helicity rule with total totals.
LCL's still suck tomorrow but are still in the Attica and Mulvane range. I would say best-case would put LCL's at 1100 tomorrow with worst-case being 2000. We'll see.

As I look over this model data I am talking myself in to an area just NW of Enid for tomorrow.
I am not calling it yet because I know as soon as I do, the NAM will revert to its past four consecutive runs prior to 00z and spit out Buffalo again.

Forecast for 10/19/05 part V

Forecast for 10/19/05 part II