These maps are for 00z Wednesday. The map at the top of this entry is forecast LI's from the 12z NAM and the bottom from the 18xz run. Click on these maps to enlarge.
So you are sitting looking at this and saying to yourself - Steve, it's an LI map, so what?
Well, this 18z LI map is a general consensus as to what has evolved with the NAM and GFS between their previous run and current run. Both shifted south and elongated. My thoughts at this point are that, while LCL's have the possibility of being a little higher down south, the chances of discrete supercells remaining discrete is better.
So now you are saying to yourself, self, why would Steve want to chase away from the low? Well, I wouldn't unless there were no chance of tornadoes anywhere within range tomorrow. Basically I am hashing out a "Plan B" for late lightning shots in case "Plan A" of driving to Buffalo and shooting a mothership supercell and a possible tornado does not work out for me... It is 2005 after all.
With this being the last viable chase for 2005, I hope every chaser out tomorrow has a Plan A and B.
Now that someone has actually named my Buffalo target at ST, I must change my target to Salmon, OK. Salman is about 300 yards to the east of Buffalo, OK.