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Forecast for 9/30/05 part IV

00z NAM models are out and I’m not much more impressed than I was after the 18z run.
CAPE is down to a forecast of 1500 and LCL’s are in the 2500 range. LI’s are looking a little lower too at -6.  
So, you are expecting me to write that this is a crappy set-up and that I’m not going.  Not true.  I am still riding the fence on this as it appears a few variables are being mis-forecast by the NAM.  
One thing I am happy with is the LL moisture probability showing on some of the site-sounding forecasts for the 21z timeframe.  
Tomorrow will be a roll of the dice and I hate to say it but I’m gonna have to take a look at the 06z models tomorrow morning and maybe even the 12z if the 06z moves things east much more.  
Right now Childress, TX is my target for an early trigger-time of around 22z.

Forecast for 9/30/05 part III