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Forecast for 9/30/05 part II

18z models support discrete supercell development over the Wichita Falls area and points west to Childress. With the low pressure progged to be at 1003 by 21z and LI’s at -8 with CAPE in the lower 200’s, I suspect there will be sufficient balance between variables. My concern is convective temp and timing. Tomorrow’s high in that area is forecast to be 88 and convective temp is to be around 91-93.
Moisture will be present but appears to be in the form of a mid-spring set-up… not too deep. I believe this will change though at the 00z run and be an indication of things to come as the RUC takes over tomorrow AM. As most of you who read my ramblings here will agree, the RUC has been king this year.
More as I look over info…

Forecast for 9/30/05 part III

Forecast for 9/30/05