Long-range models are not just hinting at winter storm potential in OK/AR/MO, they’re pretty much telling us to expect it. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on how you view winter weather, the words “long-range” was used in my prior sentence. Anything can happen.
Each of the following four maps are for Friday afternoon, Dec 6th. Maps are clickable for a better view:
Above is a temperature map from the GFS model. One thing that’s 100% probable, it will be cold late next week into next weekend.
Here’s the same GFS model for the same period showing total snow accumulation up until Friday afternoon. There appears to be a lot of snow but remember the words “long-range”.
Now take a look at the ECMWF temperature map that basically tells the same story as the GFS regarding the presence of arctic air.
Get the heavy coats out. High temps will probably be below freezing for at least a couple days.
Now you’re looking at ECMWF total snowfall. Remember, I’ve used the same forecast period based on the same model run initiation time. This model is similar in coverage with a variation in geographic location (shifted to the east in comparison to the GFS), and it brings the snow in with a little less intensity, totals-wise.
Finally, here’s the temperature map for 18 hours after the previous four maps (Saturday morning). You’ll notice the model is compensating for where it believes snow will be on the ground allowing temperatures to fall to near 0°.