Hi.

I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast for 9/13/05 part X

The 12z update is VERY positive.  I am happy with my forecast.  Before I go patting myself on the back too hard, I will need to wait for verification though.
I am really happy and surprised to see variables increase in the last 6 hours worth of modeling the way they have.  
As I look at the newer RUC info, it’s beginning to side with the NAM which is odd.  It has pops a little further west of the NAM which is fine with me too.  Even though Blackwell is my target today, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings a bit if pops occurred in the more chaseable terrain west of I-35.  RUC is targeting Enid BTW.
The hourly Mesoscale analysis page is bulls eyeing the Blackwell area with 2000 CAPE already settling in and LI’s to the tune of -6 to -7.  Winds in the upper levels look to be arriving on time and at around 40 at 500mb.
Here are a few forecast #’s for my target at 21z:
SWEAT Index: 424
Surface Based CAPE (B+) j/kg: 2975
Mixed Layer CAPE j/kg: 2247
Downdraft CAPE j/kg: 1181
SPOT Index: 81
WMAX (max updraft speed) KTS: 75
3km Helicity m^2/s^2: 93
1km Helicity m^2/s^2: 18
Parcel Lifted Index °C: -7.7
Surface Lifted Index °C: -8.2
Energy Index: -5 (Does anyone know what goes in to this product variable-wise???)
Storm Motion: ESE (281°) at 18 KTS

Forecast for 9/13/05 part IX