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Forecast for 9/13/05 part VI

Wow- for the first time in a long time, I can’t even give a decent approximate target for tomorrow.
LI’s and CAPE (ML and SB) are back in check now which is a good thing.  Earlier runs had the upper level action south of the moisture by a few hundred miles.  00z moved the moisture and a few key surface-level components a little closer to the upper level support.  Still though, I am unsure of which target area to go with.  On one hand, Chanute, KS looks golden for tomorrow.  On another, Blackwell, N. to the OK/KS state line looks good.
Fortunately, distance-wise, there is not much difference between the two targets… The question is where is the most potential???
If we look at today’s verification, I am leaning toward a possible cluster in KS, a decent cell in NC OK and a renegade supercell in central or S.W. OK.  Tomorrow is looking much like today did 24 hours ago in other words.  
One way or another, I will be chasing – who knows where though.
More after the 06z rendering… these models are wearing me out…

Forecast for 9/13/05 part VII

Forecast for 9/13/05 part V