Hi.

I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast for 8/24/05 part I

Here I am again, sitting at the computer trying to figure out what a target will be for tomorrow.
I am leaning toward a target a little further south than what some are going with. Medicine Lodge looks like a fine spot to be according to the current 12z run.
I am a little surprised more chasers are not jumping on this opportunity. The terrain is incredible, the dynamics are going to be in place AND this is so May-like, its not funny!
I don't have time to go in to specific #'s right now but one that stuck out for me is the LCL's for tomorrow between 18z & 21z. There should be no problem stirring something up with an LCL of 800...
Another interesting item has to do with combo maps. All of you who know me know I like to forecast the crap out of an event. If I have to go to colored pencils and a blank conus map on a piece of paper, I will - although you all know I don't like pre-historic forecasting.
It seems like every time someone I know sees me using a combo map such as: Supercell Composite, Sig Torn. Parameter, Supercell Composite, etc. they make some comment about "cheater maps". Well, screw ya. To forecast something out, then compare to a "cheater map" to see where the combo products are placing things is not cheating! Although I am being defensive about it so maybe it is... hummmm
Why am I going in to all of this? Well, the cheater maps for 18z and 00z tomorrow are placing the activity further south and west in to SW/KS and around Woodward, OK. My target is 125mi to the north and east in Medicine Lodge. Some chasers' targets are waaaay north.
I guess this is where the whole man vs. machine thing comes in to play.
I often wonder when my target is so far away from the cheaters, what do they see that I don't? I have looked-up some of the sources of info that go in to a few of these combo's and still didn't understand why they were targeting a different area.
Since this is turning in to a "Steve's Musings" type of post, I guess I will stop now and get back to forecasting.

Weather Wall