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Forecast for 8/17/05

As I write, I am looking at 12z model data trying to figure out whether to pull the trigger on a chase tomorrow. Justin Teague and Joseph T. are heading to KS and I'm considering tagging.
This has been such a lackluster year for me - I'm riding the fence on this trip. On the one hand, tomorrow looks like a great opportunity and could very well be the day that makes my year. On the other hand I don't want to take a chance on adding insult to injury by taking another two days off work, riding/driving for 15 hours, chasing for 4 hours and coming home with nothing(again).
That said, lets see if I can convince myself to chase this by working on a little forecast...
You will need to click on the following graphics to enlarge:The maps I am providing here are 06z maps. 12z maps are out but the F5Data maps are not updated as of this entry. F5 has custon overlays though and that's why I am using them here. I will update as I get new data.
My target as of 12z 8/16 is 50mi NE of Colby, KS. Looking at the map above, LCL heights will be in check at no more than 2500ft. With a little local rooting these should fall drastically but not on a scale a medium-range model such as the NAM will indicate. RUC data for short term forecasting will tell a much more complete story about LCL's for tomorrow but not until well after we will be on the road.
Storm Motion is ENE at 10-15. I am very happy with the speed and projected direction (direction map not shown).

CAPE of 2500 and LI's of -6 to -8. Need I say more?

Speed shear is indicated to be very good well north in to NEB. I want to be on the southern side of any perfect circle such as the one depicted in the above model. While it is a little further E than my current target, I believe it is overstated and dynamically impossible when so many other related components are in check 80 miles to the west. I'll be interested to see where the 18z run puts this feature.
Mixing ratio is nothing special. I put it in the map cause I thought there might be a feature worth looking at - turns out it makes the SS stand out a little so I left it there.
Not sure what one or two of the kiddo's over on ST is thinking but, while they have the target down pretty good, their reasoning is waaay off. 4000 CAPE tomorrow? Doubt it.
I'm waiting for 18z to further this forecast...

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Forecast for 8/17/05 part I