Hi.

I'm a private weather industry business leader with over 20 years of applied operations, sales and marketing experience. 

Hate to be a dick, but...

A guy named Mike dropped this link in a public area today regarding the severe weather on Thursday so I'm sure he won't mind if I share it with my readers.  I will assume when he sees my link to him from this blog, he will remove the material located there so I have exercised my copy and paste rights (do I really have those kinds of rights?) and pasted his content below.

I have a fundamental issue with people imitating an official source of information.  There are too many stupid people out there who would read this material and believe it to be official.  Yes, trust me, there are...  Sure, there is some accurate information in the narrative of his forecast but calling Thursday's event a "High Risk" and a "Particularly Dangerous Situation", well, that's careless. In addition, his page layout and coloring is designed to appear similar to the SPC and his graphic is also somewhat similar.  What exactly is Mike attempting to accomplish here? Again, this is text and graphics directly from his page.  Do not kill the messenger.

http://severectr.mradio105fm.com/products/outlook/day3otlk.php
day3otlk_0928_0036
SWU SV OTLK

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
MIKES RADIO SEVERE WEATHER UNIT DAYTON OH
1101 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

ISSUED 0036Z SEP 28 2009
VALID 010600Z - 020600Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THUR AND THUR NIGHT ACROSS
ERN/CTRL NE...WRN IA...WRN MO...ERN/CTRL KS...NRN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THUR AND THUR NGT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THUR AND THUR NGT ACROSS THE
PLAIN STATES AND INTO WRN IL...

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY THUR
AFTN INTO FRI MRN ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS WITH A FAST MOVING
WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS IS A PARTICULARY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD POSE A DANGER TO LIFE AND/OR PROPERTY IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

...PDS (PARTICULARY DANGEROUS SITUATION) EVENT LIKELY THURSDAY...
WHICH WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF ACTION IS
NOT PROPERLY TAKEN...

A TRIPLE POINT BOUNDARY WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CO/KS BRDR AND
LOW PRESSURE IN ND WITH TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCLUDE AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM
ND TO NE...COLD FRONT FROM KS BACK INTO AZ AND A WRM FRONT GOING
INTO OK. A TROF WILL BE ATTACHED TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL.
LATEST SFC MAPS SHOWING THAT A FEW UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS EAST. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD GO
AWAY BY 12Z...BUT COME BACK AGAIN ON FRI. ISOBARS...EXTREMELY CLOSE
TOGETHER...REPRESENT THIS BEING A STRONG BOUNDARY. THIS MEANS THAT
THIS WILL BE A POTENT BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE PLAIN STATES
DURING THE PERIOD THURSDAY. THE TROF TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AND DISSIPATING BY 12Z FRI. HOWEVER THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE GULF STATES DURING THE PERIOD...THUS
ALLOWING FOR THE EVENT TO LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS EVENT WILL BE THE TRIPLE
POINT BOUNDARY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THREE LOW
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT. THIS
WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT COULD CAUSE MAJOR
DAMAGE AND BE A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

...PLAIN STATES/ WRN IL (SLGT RISK)...
TRIPLE POINT BNDRY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
SFC HEATING IS EXPECTED...AND DEW POINTS SHOULD HOIST IN THE 60'S
AND 70'S. LI'S WILL VARY ON LOCATION...BUT IN TX PART OF THE SLGT...
THERE IS A LI AT -7 BY 18Z THUR. LONG TERM AND MID RANGE MODELS
BOTH INDICATE AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLN AND THINKING IS THAT GENRLY
DECENT INSTBY WILL SET UP ACRS THE PLAINS AS THIS STRONG CLD FRNT
MOVES EAST ACRS THE AREA. THREE LOW PRSR GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DVLP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT BNDRY. IN ESSENCE...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL DVLP ALONG OF THIS SURGING TRIPLE PNT BNDY. BNDRY IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE THRU THIS RGN VERY VERY FAST...AND POSING A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD THE FRNT. FOR THE WRN PART...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SIG WIND REPORTS WILL BE LIKELY...AND THE ERN
PART...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
ORGANIZED TO POSE THIS THREAT. BOTH THE LONG RANGE AND MID RANGE ARE
FORECASTING THAT MODEST INSTBY WILL DEVELOP...WITH RATHER DECENT
SHEARING ACROSS THIS AREA. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLGT RISK INDICATE
THAT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PREVELANT...WITH THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES GIVEN SHEARING IN PLACE. GIVEN DECENT LAPSE RATES IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A GIVEN BET. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT THE
FIRST FORMATION OF THIS SEGMENT...THEN BECOMING SMALLER CLUSSTERS
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK REGION. EXACT
POSITIONING AND TIMING WILL BE RATHER PERTINENT TO DETERMINE HOW
EXACT THE STORM MODES WILL DVLP ACROSS THIS REGION. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE GIVEN LAPSE RATES AND SHEARING IN PLACE. EVEN
ACROSS THIS AREA...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD...SHEARING WILL BE
AROUND 500 M2/S2...BUT SHUD DECREASE A BIT DURING THE PD. SHEARING
WILL STILL BE ABOVE 100 M2/S2...THUS ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. TORNADOES WILL BE ESPECIALLY GIVEN WITH ANY STRONGER
SUPERCELL. WITH SUCH STRONG SHEARING ACROSS THIS AREA...A STRONG
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE 30% AREA. IN THE 15% AREA...
LATER IN THE PD AS THESE STORMS MOVE E...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/RAIN COOLED ATMOSPHERE...THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO LOOSE
INTENSITY. UTIMATELY WHAT THIS WILL BOIL DOWN TOO IS THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY. IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH...THAT RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STILL IN THIS AREA...A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN SHEARING IN PLACE. THOUGH DO FEEL THAT DMGG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IS ALSO A GOOD
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. ACROSS TX...THIS AREA MAY HAVE TO BE
UPGRADED TO A MDT IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DEW PTS AND LI'S ARE
SUGGESTING THAT A BIT MORE OF A STRONGER EVENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THIS AREA. THIS OF COURSE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONING...THO IF ANY STORMS FIRE OFF OF THAT TROF...
THEY COULD BEGIN TO TURN SEVERE RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS
HAPPENS AT PEAK SFC DAYTIME HEATING. WILL GO 15% PROB ON THIS OTLK
FOR THIS AREA AS THERE ARE STILL A FEW WILD CARDS ACRS TX THAT HAVE
YET TO BE DETERMINED.

ALONG SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PWAT VALUES SEEM TO BE
RATHER HIGH ACROSS THIS RGN...ALSO SUGGESTING A FLOODING PTNL. IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A FLOODING SITUATION TOO. THIS COULD
CAUSE SOME CONCERN...AND COULD ALLOW STORMS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THIS
AREA AS THIS HAPPENS. POST FRONTAL WISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL LIKELY...BUT THE MAIN THING WILL BE THAT ADDITONAL GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE WHILE. ONCE AGAIN...
ACROSS IL...THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH INTO THE AREA AFTER 6Z FRI...
WHICH IF THE INSTBY WILL BE WEAK...THEN JUST SUB SEVERE TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STORMS SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY.

--HEIGHT FALLS ALSO SEEM TO BE RATHER DECENT ACROSS ALL AREAS...
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SUPERCELL RISK...ALTHOUGH SIGNS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT A DERECHO WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MDT AND HIGH
RISKS. THIS LINE WILL LKLY REACH THE ERN PART OF THE SLGT AND STILL
BE LINEAR. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF MAINLY DMGG WINDS AND LRG
HAIL. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY
NEED A)UPGRADE TO 30% PROBS OR B) UPGRADED TO THE MDT RISK. THIS
WILL BE DETERMINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS WITH MORE MODEL DETAILS.

...MDT RISK AREA(OK, NW AR, W MO, W IA, SE SD, CTRL NE, W KS)...
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK, IS A MODERATE RISK AREA, COVERING MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA, IOWA, MISSOURI,
ARKANSAS, KANSAS, AND NEBRASKA. NAM INDICATES SFC-500MB BULK SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH SOME TURNING OF THE
WINDS WITH ALTITUDE, LEADING TO A SRH GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 150
M2/S2, WITH AN AREA IN IOWA SEEING SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2.
LIFTED INDECIES AT OR ABOUT -4 WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE, TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS
INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 65F. THESE ELEMENTS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG, LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

...HIGH RISK AREA… (KS,NE,MO,IA, AND NE OK)...

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE IS ALSO THERE OF TORNADOES, SOME STRONG AND EVEN VIOLENT,
VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THIS SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS PUT THE STORM CENTER IN NEBRASKA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY. ANY CAP THAT IS LEFT FROM THE MORNING WILL BE GONE BY EARLY
TO MID-AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR IS PLENTY AT 60 KNOTS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AMPLE WITH THE STORMS. THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 60
DEGREE RANGE, AND EVEN CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES. HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED
HIGHLY, WHICH WOULD MEAN AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES.

THIS SITUATION WILL BE CONTINUALLY MONITORED THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

...FOLAND/MARTIN/CROUCH.. 09/28/09

Forecast: 9/30/09

Forecast: 10/01/09