Hi.

I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast: 10/17/07

Looks like a good chase day is ahead of us with a few storms on the preliminary event getting a little carried away up in Kingfisher County. I have posted an image (2nd below) depicting what the SPC thinks about today. Obviously there is a decent chance of some tornadic activity and right now most amateur forecasters are awaiting the current mess to eject and then another review of the models before setting an exact target. I am no different but can say that at this point models can almost* be thrown out of the picture when it comes to general dynamics as things are solid from the southern OK border up to Wichita. That said, what I will be watching closely are:
Dryline bulge: right now it looks like this could occur right here in the Norman to OKC area which is not a good thing at all.
Backing winds: right now, models have winds slightly backing this afternoon up on the OK/KS border a little west of I-35. This is my main focus right now.
Current convection: This convection could* slide north of the OKC metro. If it does, watch out.
This early convection will throw out boundaries that will be an additional focal point for development and rooting this afternoon. Also, if the precip skirts the metro, temps will not have a rebound period - they will already be where they need to be and moisture is currently sufficient at 9:30am. Combine a dryline bulge, decent moisture depth, and a good healthy boundary in points southwest of the metro and we could have ourselves a bad day...
All of this working itself out is 50/50 and my current target is not OKC but it could be if the stars align. Is there a model for stars aligning?
Today will either be a really big deal or a huge bust. There is bust potential - I guess I should have mentioned that...











Current view from I-40 and Hwy 81

Eureka!