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I'm a private weather industry business leader with over 20 years of applied operations, sales and marketing experience. 

2/23-24/07 Forecast

Sometimes being away from the models for a little while is a good thing…

I have been sick as a dog for the past 36 hours or so. Getting on the computer and looking at weather models then writing about my thoughts has not been at the top of my priority list.
While I was away from weather reality I received several calls from people who were updating me on model runs, AFD chatter, and whatnot. Thanks to those who kept me informed! Anyway, the reason I say it is sometimes best to be away from models is because it is much less irritating when things change from run to run!
This happens almost every event but when you pour over models like I do it is a lot more frustrating to see your solution go to hell in a matter of six-hours and a new target area and mode has to be found. I got to listen to those of you who called with updates and could hear the frustration in your voices though and not that I look at some of the runs from yesterday I understand why!

Anyway, here’s how I see it right now.
I wouldn’t chase Friday’s event if someone offered to come to my house, pick me up, pay for gas and dinner and drop me off when it’s all over. Why? Tomorrow’s fun will go linear within literally minutes of going up. In addition, I think there is a good possibility things will trigger at sunset which makes me totally uninterested – not to mention storm speed. If I were to go, Woodward would be my starting point and I would plan to move north a little from there. Maybe Buffalo.
I do look forward to sitting somewhere high between 2am and 4am Sat morning to shoot lightning off the broken MCS that will move through Tulsa though.
Saturday is the day I see the most severe potential albeit that potential is in Missouri.
As of right now I think Saturday afternoon storms will give us a little something to point a camera at around the Tulsa area and points East. I like Pryor, OK for initiation although I will stick by that Missouri comment above for large severe coverage.

Basically:
I wouldn’t waste my time with Friday, If I changed my mind, Woodward would be the spot
Sat morning very early should be good for lightning photos
Sat might be good early east of Tulsa for some storm upstart photography
Sat in Missouri could get quite wild

2/23-24/07 Forecast

2/24/07 Forecast