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Forecast for 11/5/05 part IX

Here we are, just a few minutes, surly away from initiation of the storms in MO.
I have to say, if this set-up were to be in May, there would be some serious outbreak ability here.
I have three areas of interest at this time.

My PRIMARY target of Sullivan, MO is looking more and more unstable by the minute as surface obs and satellite indicate. I am now awaiting the next mesoscale analysis for further verification that I picked the right target this morning. I feel strongly about the tornadic potential for this area. It appears though that the SPC will be issuing a tornado watch soon and that should make my target and forecast of decent rotating storms with wind, hail and possible tornadoes null and void.

My second area of interest (due to proximity alone) is just south of Ft. Smith, ARK. There is a bubble of 1500 CAPE and -4 LI's. Given the surface temp there and other obs coming into check, I expect something to pop there any time. There is a little bit of a temp problem at 700mb which is holding the cap. If/when something goes, I will be filming it from Tulsa as there is clear weather here and I can shoot for many miles.

Last, is the area in central Illinois where the RUC says the most potential for tornadic activity is. I say blah and will blame moisture. Yes, there is moisture but not the rich gulf moisture we are seeing in MO and E OK right now.

I have a bit of additional concern for central ARK after dark tonight as the atmosphere REALLY gets cranking. A fairly long band of favorable conditions for rotating supercells exists from Eureka Springs down to Pine Bluff and 50 miles on either side of a line that connects the two.
More in a few minutes...

Nowcast for 11/5/05

Forecast for 11/5/05 part VIII