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Forecast for 10/19/05 part V

12z NAM is rendered fully now so I will comment on it a little here.
I am surprised to see CAPE go back to 1500 but ongoing convection could have a lot to do with that.  Upper level obs show current wind speeds of 55kts at 500 at Amarillo and 70+ kts at Albuquerque.  Those concerned with sufficient wind in the upper levels can rest now.
Moisture looks to be the big playa today.  I like the idea of looking further west again toward the tiny cold pool area of the low.  Because I can’t make up my mind about the two targets I have thrown out over the past 18 hours, I will say my target is between Buffalo and Alva.  There, I picked two targets in essence - is that legal in storm chasing?
Looking at storm motion scares me a little.  Granted, we will be focusing on any storm that will move parallel to the boundary which should be a slower storm but all other storms in the area are forecast to be quite speedy at up to 35kts.  That definitely reminds me on early spring action.  Let’s hope for a good rooting on the boundary and something decent to photograph.
I posted in a forum yesterday that if this storm managed to throw down a tornado, it would be a very photogenic one.  At this time, IF there were a tornado, I can’t imagine it would be a pretty one.  The only hope I have is what everyone else is complaining about and that is sun angle.  Depending on what development is behind the storm will determine whether there are any good shots to be had today at all.
One way or another, this IS 2005 and if there’s a chance of recovering this year, I will be there… trashy tornado or not…

Forecast for 10/19/05 part VI

Forecast for 1019/05 part III