I'm a private weather industry business leader with over 20 years of applied operations, sales and marketing experience. 

Forecast for 10/19/05 part I

Well, I am back from 10 days of well deserved vacation without a cell phone, e-mail or any other communication with anyone in the states. Pictures of my trip will be posted at “Steve’s Pics” (see links on the right side of this page).

It appears I will be welcomed home by more than just the stacks of work on my desk and some dog poop my house-sitter didn’t pick up… STORMS!
Saturday, my wife and I were sitting in Cabo San Lucas discussing weather. SURPRISE.
We noted the local newspaper (Gringo Gazette - really) forecast for L.A. on Monday called for clouds and rain and I explained to her that the system will most likely influence our weather back home by mid-week. Well, sure enough, we got to L.A. yesterday morning for our flight to Dallas and then on to Tulsa and it was not only cloudy and raining, it was storming!
Still without data, I crossed my fingers that this would be a potent late-season system and flew on to Dallas (got some good aerials of the Cap Rock area in TX from 40,700 ft up…). In Dallas I retrieved voicemail and I think most of you who normally read my blog(s) had called to give me a heads-up for tomorrow’s potential. THANKS!!!
Special thanks to Justin Teague who sat on the phone with me and went over variables until 11:00 last night (I was still without data)…

So, today I am getting caught up on work and have found a stopping place and am beginning to look at models for tomorrow. I have only browsed the 12z NAM rendering and it will be later on tonight before I look at all models and can target a specific city.
As of right now though, I would look at a triangle with points at Alva – Buffalo – Woodward.
CAPE looks decent at 2000+ and moisture/temp look in check but I would like to see a little higher dew point. LCL’s suck but apparently there is some early convection forecast so maybe that will change. WOW – look at shear for tomorrow!

It’s back to work for me. Check back often as I will start updating regularly again.

Forecast for 10/19/05 part II

TRO Starts Weather Related Forum