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Forecast for 9/30/05 part V

Models were consistent overnight and that makes three – okay, count them with me – ONE - - TWO - - THREE nam models that have managed to agree.  That is 18 hours worth!  Congratulations NAM!
Okay, kidding aside, today looks like a decent day to chase.  I think I will be sitting this one out as my wife just finished a month of playing night doctor at the hospital and I actually get to hang out with her today plus, my best friend and his wife had a baby late last night.  Sooo, that leaves me with a busy day.
For those of you with my cell-phone #, I am available for nowcasting should you like to have some.
As of the 06z run, my target for today is Vernon, TX.  I believe initiation will be in the Childress area and points to the south and west of Childress but activity will move in to air more favorable for rotating supercells at around Vernon.  If there is a tornado that can manage to spin up today it will be in a triangle with outer edges touching Vernon, Wichitatitty Falls and Lawton, OK.  
Within this triangle I expect the primary threat to be hail to the size of cat-heads.  Some wind will be present in the form of micro and macro bursts until the storms squall out east of my little “triangle of affection”.  Then expect wide-area gust-front type linear related winds.
One nice thing about this system is that it is concentrated.  You guys chasing today who will be heading back to Tulsa will not have to drive through rain all the way to get home!
Good luck to you.

Forecast for 9/30/05 part VI

Forecast for 9/30/05 part IV