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Forecast for 9/30/05 part III

As I continue to look at the 18z NAM and newer European runs, I am more disappointed than not.  While instability and upper-level temps, wind speed and arrival time appear to be on target for a 21-23z trigger-time tomorrow (I’m no longer concerned about convective temps BTW), low level moisture return will be minimal and shallow.
In fact, if moisture gets it together at all, it will be thanks to mid-level evaporation of precip associated with cloud cover that will be present some of the day tomorrow in the target area.
I am hoping I am wrong about this but honestly, I am tired of wish-casting… sitting here looking at only the maps that look good and comparing them to past events.  

As has been said by many of my chaser friends – “it’s 2005… we can’t expect anything”

Forecast for 9/30/05 part IV

Forecast for 9/30/05 part II