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Forecast for 10/1/05 part III

12z NAM indicated the best action today will be between Arkansas City, KS and Coffeyville, KS.  I am trying to figure out where outflow boundaries will set up at this point in my forecast day.  It would stand to reason that with the low in the position it is right now, the boundaries would arrive well south of the current precip but the NAM is not seeing it the way I see it.
Taking a look at the RUC, I see decent CAPE and LI’s hanging out a little south and west of OKC.  I know there is little upper level support down that way and I suspect there is a boundary already setting up between El Reno, OK and Ponca City, OK.  I see no reason for that southern moisture not to creep up north a little.
I am gonna give this chase the kiss of death and target Blackwell, OK  for today based on the 12z NAM and 13z RUC.  Hell, who knows – maybe my original target last night of El Reno will pan out.  Wouldn’t that be cool.

Forecast for 10/1/05 part IV

Forecast for 10/1/05 part II