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Forecast for 10/1/05 part II

I am very confused by the 06z NAM and its placement of svr today. One definite was the 00z run last night that I based my El Reno, OK target on. EVERYTHING bulls eyed the area just west of OKC.
Still this morning there is an area of best CAPE and LI’s plus some upper level support west of OKC and south a little by 21z. Some forecasters and all the combo maps show activity to pop, and be svr, between Bartlesville, OK and Pittsburg, KS.
Going with this area makes sense given the position of the low and its associated energy, I just expected the LI’s to build a little more in the area of the low, not 150-200 miles to its west.
If I were using the 06z run and ONLY the 06z run to forecast today, I would target extreme SE KS. I am not though and am awaiting the 12z.

Forecast for 10/1/05 part III

Forecast for 10/1/05 part I