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Forecast for 9/13/05 part V

As I write I’m watching a NICE supercell in Ellis County, KS and hoping tomorrow will produce like today is. This cell was a monster and is cycling right now. It is tornado warned and judging by the loop, it should be spinning like a top at all levels. Will this little surprise be anything like tomorrow? Also, check out the boundary around Dodge City!
I hate to ride the fence on my forecast for Tues. but I am. I have mentioned areas west of Tulsa and south of Wichita. The NAM is handling the cold front well now and has slowed it down to the point that the true energy for tomorrows potential svr should arrive right at trigger-time.
The NAM is again placing the moisture and instability 200 miles or more north of where the energy will be. This is the same indication I got from the 18z run yesterday and, with the European models disagreeing with the moisture placement again today at 18z, I’m siding with a more southern area for moisture.
That said, I will likely move my current target of Blackwell, OK to the north and slightly east. I will most likely share my new target here later on given the # of chasers who will likely be out tomorrow (very few).
Those chasing tomorrow, let’s collectively cross our fingers and hope for something photogenic.
I’ll update again at around 10:30pm cdt.

Forecast for 9/13/05 part VI

Forecast for 9/13/05 part IV