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Forecast for 9/13/05 part II

For anyone keeping score, I think the NAM is starting to come around. European models as of 00z last night were putting a target area between Blackwell, OK and Enid, OK for Tues. I was siding with that after seeing what GFS was doing (agreement) and noting the NAM had precip breaking out WAAAAY SW and upper level support in Woodward, OK west in to TX. The NAM SUCKED on the 00z, 06z, really sucked on the 12z and is okay on the 18z.
On the 18z run the NAM decided to agree with my target area stated above from 00z last night and, with the exception of a few obscure variables, might impress me for the first time in about a month or so.
Don't think I'm sold on the NAM just yet for this event; it has had only one good run...
I'll update again after the 00z renders.

Forecast for 9/13/05 part III

Forecast for 9/13/05 part I