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Forecast for 9/13/05 part I

Well, I think I will take a break from Hurricane forecasting for a little while and shift back to "severe weather on the plains" forecasting.
First off, kudos to Joseph T. for catching this system back on Friday. This guy's got mad skills on the long term stuff.
I'm still running on 06z model data and 12z should be finished rendering any minute now but I have to go do some married guy stuff today so I will forecast "Part I" off the 06z. Please check in for updates later.
As usual, the NAM is not handling this system well. Moisture is located 150 miles south of where upper level support is. The cold front is in TX by Wed early PM... That is simply not happening - there is not enough to work with (cold air-wise) to push that far south. If I were writing a forecast based on the NAM right now, I would be driving to Altus, OK on Tuesday.
If I were writing on the European, I would be in Woodward on Tuesday.
With the combined models, GFS thrown in for fun - it looks like svr could be as close as Enid, OK (again) for Tues. Also, this could be an early event (3:00pm - 5:00pm trigger window).
I'm also keeping an eye on Wednesday for potential svr in Eastern, OK from McAlester to Ft. Smith, AR. I won't be chasing in that area because of the jungle-like nature of the terrain - oh - and there will probably be a HUGE supercell up around Pratt, KS to play with. Again, I'm not gonna spend much time on Wed. til it gets a little closer. With models being indecisive, there is no need to waste my time on a 84hr (or more) forecast.
That's all for now. More this afternoon.

Forecast for 9/13/05 part II

Mass Shelter Activation in Tulsa? Maybe...