I mentioned in my last post that I was beginning to agree with a landfall somewhere near New Orleans. I still believe a direct hit on the Big Easy is doubtful but the portion of the hurricane that would be most damaging (surging/rainwater) appears to track over the city with current models. The above animation shows that Katrina is JUST NOW making its turn NW and will soon go ahead and veer further to the north as today progresses. The steering mechanism I was depending on for me Florida panhandle target yesterday did not have the strength to overcome the power of this cane.
The second image will probably bring a lawsuit. The good folks over at ST provide this image and yes, I lifted it - didn't link to it, I lifted it. When several of the moles over there read this, I'm sure a hooded regiment will be en route to my internet provider to have my site taken down and hell, they might even try to find my home and burn it to the ground. I will remind them that I bought a $150 copy of DA and have never been able to do ANYTHING with it but get it loaded on my computer. Maybe this will help relieve some of the wrath. Anyway, check out the track Tim V. has for this storm.
Okay, back to the forecasting:
Rumor is that Katrina has reached Category 5 status although the NHC has yet to put out an official statement. SST's from the current position of Katrina to anywhere the cane might make landfall along the Gulf coast are all above 90. In some spots, SST's are up to 93.
While the city of New Orleans is my primary concern as they cram 50,000 people into the Superdome which has never experienced anything more than a Cat 1 storm, inland cities are at a great threat for tornadoes and other related severe weather.
Just looking at some inland model data will tell you that there is a true threat. SPC has a 5% as of right now. With upper support and helicity values, spinups will be common, tornadoes will be too.
Ahhh, here we go:
WTNT32 KNHC 281151
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...