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Forecast for 8/24/05 part IV

06z NAM run has moved things a little west again. Also, the area of interest has elongated east to west quite a bit.
CAPE is pretty well forecasted with the NAM at 2500 for today. -8 LI's look to be fairly common in the target area. A nice complex is moving across western OK as I type and, believe it or not, the 00z and the 06z NAM forecasted the OFB it will put out which gives me a little renewed hope in the model. Let's avoid a model woody for a while though because I still have to go to the european to find any mid-level support at all. What this means is that I am combining model data in order to create an event for myself that is worth chasing. I call that a wish-cast.
So, as it sits right now, I am totally riding the fence on whether this is worth the drive.
Some other stats of interest at the target area:
Mixed Layer CAPE j/kg: 2221
WMAX (max updraft speed) KTS: 76
BRN Shear m/s: 5.86

I just noticed the convective temps are up around 101 - 103. WOW, I hope that is an overstated #. Surface temps are not supposed to get above 100 north of OKC.

I still see potential for the day but with the LLJ still present in western OK, the convection will not dissipate as quickly as we had hoped which will decrease the daytime heating potential thus creating less surface instability.
More after 12z runs render.

Forecast for 8/24/05 part V

Forecast for 8/24/05 part III