Hi.

I'm a private weather industry marketing executive specializing in the strategic approach to SaaS in established and emerging markets. 

Forecast for 8/20/05 part V

As I sit here and forecast I am constantly drawn to the mid-eastern states, mainly Ohio where the main portion of this system is going to send its wrath today. I am amazed by the components available for storms in that area and really hope precautions are being taken. ANYTHING that goes up in the state of Ohio today will spin like a top and I expect some very serious tornadoes.
As for OK/KS, I am beginning to understand the NAM's problem with boundaries. It broke precip out this morning (in prior runs) at the area there is currently precip (imagine that!) which is along the OK/KS border and between Caney, KS and Wichita. The NAM was unable to pinpoint the outflow potential because of the elongated east to west nature of the precip. In fact, right now an outflow boundary, possibly the one we will chase this afternoon is about to speed through Tulsa and covers points 50 miles to the east and 80 miles to the west (visible on radar if you look right now).
Will this be our foci today? Personally, I hope not.
CAPE and LI's look GREAT about 75 miles north ofWichita toward Salina. This was the active zone yesterday and possibly could be again today depending on what the front decides to do.
Upper level support is still massive on the european and marginal on the NAM. Surface components are in place in the area just mentioned. Further south and in the outflow area I mentioned near T-town, the surface and mid levels are not near as impressive although they could get that way in a hurry.
So, my target is as follows:
For a close-to-home chase, I'm liking the area just to the NW of Tulsa around I-35. These storms should lack support for supercell activity - BUT, I have been wrong before on this type of set-up...
Calls are going out to the chase group (the ones who are actually willing to hit the road today) as soon as I finish typing.
One way or the other, I'm getting out today.

8/20/05 Pawnee, OK Chase

Forecast for 8/20/05 part IV