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Forecast for 8/20/05 part III

Quickly wanted to post a 12z look at the set-up for tomorrow. SBCAPE is in the 3500 range and LI's are currently forecast to be at -4. This map indicates the best potential will be around Tulsa. That is very good for a low-mileage chase but very bad for chase terrain. We'll see.
While these two variables are in good shape along with a european agreement with the 12z NAM, I am not at all happy with mid-level temps and shear. Also, 12z NAM products suggest the precip breakout will be in the OK panhandle and up around Nevada, MO - well north of the favorable LI's and CAPE.
Again I say - I'm gonna keep waiting for the NAM to stop throwing up all over itself and get it together. I want a solid opportunity tomorrow and at this point am wondering how much wishcasting is actually going on in my brain...

Forecast for 8/20/05 part IV

Forecast for 8/20/05 part II